Thursday, April 28, 2011

LIBYA – a curious tale

Mohammed Bouazizi was a Tunisian youth. However his death was not ordinary. In his death he left a massive protest a flame that swept across the Middle East and Africa. Soon Egypt and Tunisia saw regime changes while calls for protest began to ring throughout the area including the regions as far as Bahrain and Syria. And then the flame of revolution spread to Libya.



However there is a fundamental difference in the character of these movements that have spawned across the Middle East. While in Egypt it has been largely a battle fought by the middle class, in Bahrain and Saudi Arabia it has been the voice of the marginalized Sunni community against the elite Shias. And in Libya which is clearly torn between its tribal identities it’s a war between the eastern and western side. It was a civil war which descended into a conflict and the West once again jumped in without making proper assumptions.



And once again this conflict brought out the crude realities of the global equations. In today’s global politics the relations and even news are assessed in terms of strategic importance. So while civil war in Libya received news the deaths of hundreds in Bahrain shot dead by Saudi mercenaries as overlooked. The reason was simple while Gaddafi was an aberration in world politics Saudi Arabia and Bahrain were integral parts of the world order. Thus we saw a mismatch in terms of how news was presented.



The basis call for a change in governance in Libya started from the eastern town of Benghazi which has emerged as a focal point of rebel standing. Gaddafi retaliated by hitting the town of Misrata killing innocent civilians in the manner. Thus the crisis escalated into a full scale war and the provincial council in Benghazi called for international help. It was a humanitarian crisis they argued and thus the world leaders must have a sense of shared responsibility. The world leaders immediately reciprocated as they saw a chance of asserting their own rights in the Libyan region which was rich in oil. It is in the light of these statements that the context of their response must be understood:



EU: The EU region was the first to get involved in the Libyan war. It was France who not only recognised the government in Benghazi but also started deploying troops to help the Libyan rebels win the civil war. Analysts around the world have attributed this as a fact that a former colonial power France now wants to control the political strings in the African region so that it can reap economic dividends. This assessment is not entirely incorrect. Rarely have we heard the French be so vocal about such issues.



This time around France showed much gusto in passing resolution 1970 which bars selling of arms to the Libyan nationals and resolution 1973 which imposed a no flying zone over Libya. Of course these brought fore technical difficulties since by the same resolution the rebels couldn’t be provided arms either. However such difficulties were not paid much attention while drafting over the resolution.The activity of France can also be attributed to the Presidential elections round the corner.Sarkozy was widely criticized for playing no role in Tunisia or Egypt.Thus he wanted to improve his own report card in this regard .This also explains for France's recent actions in Ivory Coast.Historically France has always felt the necessity to voice its opinion on every major happening in the world.



Britain too joined France in this so called war Operation Enduring Dawn (NATO codename).The British society is itself fragmented in this issue with the Liberal Democrats in the government itself against it .However the Prime Minister seems to have prevailed for now. Britain too hopes to accomplish the same goals as France. It seeks to obtain economic gains by establishing political ties in this region.



This opportunity also offers a chance for the two countries to renew their ties in the African region. However other major powers including Germany has decided to abstain from this process. Germany the strongest European member has also not participated in the NATO exercise. This proves that the house of EU is divided itself. While battling financial insecurity in its own home EU cannot incur another Iraq 2.However France and Britain have chose to ignore these warnings.



US: For once the US was not too keen in taking up the leadership of this operation. This was apparent from the fact that initially US was reluctant to send forces to capture Libya or provide air support. But soon this drastically changed and US too joined in the liberation of Libyan people. While they have chosen to keep quite over the genocide of Bahrain and Sudan the US has gone to denounce the Libyan government and attack it. The silence over Sudan is understandable given the fact that the Chinese have large oil interests in south Sudan and the Americans do not want to offend the Chinese.



Thus in Libya, US see an opportunity of increasing oil supplies and installing a friendly government. Infact the US is already in talks with various African nations who can provide a safe passage to Gadaffi. This proves that the most important consideration is not the liberation of the Libyan people but a complete regime change. The US Tomahawks have killed civilians as well but these reports have been faithfully ignored.The role of AlJazeera too is in question since this time around this is a question of interest of the Americans. The Qatari owners of AlJazzera do not want to offend the Americans hence it has offered a much muted response this time around. Thus once again the prime interest of US is oil and a friendly regime in the name of liberating people from tyranny.



BRIC: Perhaps the most interesting role in the Libyan Crisis has been played by the BRIC Bloc. In abstaining together from the voting of the Security Council Resolution 1973 which ordered an attack in Libya the BRIC countries have once again displayed the sense of togetherness. However when dissected in a proper manner each of the abstentions emancipated from different reasons.



Russia and China abstained from the voting however they didn’t exercise their veto powers in UN either as they had done in the past. This is a signal of the multivector foreign policy that Moscow and Beijing seems to profess in recent times. By choosing to abstain from the voting they made symmetry with their foreign policy. However in not exercising their power to veto these countries reflect their growing relations with the West. Moscow and Beijing would prefer the company of Washington rather than the friendship of a North African dictator who is doomed anyway.



They abstained because they had their own unresolved issues centered on Georgia (for Russia) and Sudan (for China).If not for these issues then there was a major likelihood that China and Russia would have voted in favour .And it is also for the same reasons that these countries would not support a future war on Libya with ground troops, because then their own stand on international issues become dicey. This also brought to fore Mendeneev intention of closer ties with US which was reflected by the spat between Mendeneev and Putin over the Libyan crisis.



India and Brazil however abstained from the voting for entirely its won reasons. The abstention of Brazil is a reflection of its new foreign policy centered on Lula Di Silva ambitious plan to emerge as a global peacemaker. It was for this reason Brazil denounced the aggression in itself. The role of India is centered on its historical considerations and also growing relations in the BRIC forum itself. If India had voted for or against it would have upset the US as well as China or Russia in one way or the other. In choosing to abstain India chose the safest route of aligning itself with its global multivector foreign -policy.



Arab League: The 22 countries Arab League is dominated by the GCC (Gulf Cooperation Council).The GCC is a well known ally of the US and hence the role of Arab League was nothing but a congruence of US policy in this regard. In choosing to denounce the Libyan government Saudi Arabia, Yemen and others choose to legitimize their own rule which is being threatened. In supporting the no fly zone the Arab League also declared that the Gaddafi regime had lost its legitimacy. The Arab League’s call provided crucial for the passage of the UN resolution. It impacted strongly on Russia and China who choose to abstain in the end.



In the navigation of diplomacy it was perhaps the tiny emirate of Qatar which played a major role. Qatar not only helped the passage of the resolution but also provided fighter jets. The Qataris already have a high profile owing to the large funding that it provides to the AlJazeera channel. Qatar is on a diplomatic high and has ambition to replace the Saudis as the next envoy for the West in the Middle East. Their recent actions in the Libyan drama can only be attributed to this. And in return Qatar was the first country to receive oil rights from the oil drilled by the rebel government in Benghazi.



African Union: This was perhaps the only organisation which wanted a proper solution for the Libyan crisis. The African leaders having brunt the colonial whip for the past many centuries were not ready to let an African country be the victim of western imperialism once more. It was with this objective that the AU sent a peace mission to Gadaffi where they wanted to arrive at a peaceful conclusion.



It was also their efforts that Gadaffi had announced a ceasefire which he himself violated in the later phase. While considering the historical necessity and unity the support from AU also stems from the fact that Gadaffi invested much time with the AU rather than with the Arab League. These include development works taken in the Sub Saharan regions. It was for these reasons that the African Union wanted to find a peaceful solution to the Libyan crisis. However their voice was tactically ignored by UN and the NATO while dealing with the Libyan crisis.



In the end as time pulls by the Libyan crisis sees no end. The best hope for the moment is to not turn it into another Iraq. This would not auger well for the world. Instead efforts must be made to end the military conflict fast and look for the transition to a smooth successful democratic government. In a ethnically driven country like Libya this will be a hard bargain and it is in this respect the AU will play a major role and its voice must be considered. A peaceful solution to the Libyan crisis is imperative and its possible only if the AU voices are taken abroad.

ISSUE OF DIRECT CASH TRANSFER (DCT)

The recent budget has seen the announcement of moving towards the system of direct cash transfer instead of a subsidy based support system. The proposal to move towards the Direct Cash Transfer mode is the single most radical change in the budget. Post Budget it has emerged as the most important topic of discussion among analysts. The moot question is will this system signal a change where benefits of governance will actually reach the poor? To answer this question we must go back to the genesis of the direct cash transfer system. During the late 1990’s champions of neoliberlaism began to advocate the system of direct cash transfer which meant giving money to the poor. The system has been successfully implemented in various forms in countries like Brazil, Venezuela etc.



Historically the demand for replacing the subsidy based system is based on the fact that the Indian PDS (Public Distribution System) has suffered from myriad problems. Leakage, inefficient reach and logistical failure have gripped the PDS system for so long that it has become an utter failure in the present context. For the last few years there have been repeated demands for a change in the PDS delivery mechanism yet no solutions could be reached. Barring the success of Tamil Nadu, PDS has remained largely failure in India. Thus the ground was prepared for a new way of reaching out to the poor and direct cash transfer seems to be the preferred route taken by the Finance Minister.

To discuss the viability of the DCT we must first understand how the government plans to introduce this system. The Nandan Nikhleni lead UID will start rolling out Aadhar numbers by 2012.Each Indian citizen will be allotted a unique 12 digit UID number. The next step will be linking up individual bank accounts to the UID numbers allotted. In the third step the money will be directly transferred to the bank accounts. This seems to be the broad outline of the DCT mode envisaged today. However this delivery mechanism must be critically analysed. Opponents of the plan argue that in a largely backward country like India especially in the rural areas and inhospitable areas the system of Banking with the poor and UID numbers will be impossible. While their fears cannot be discounted yet there is no reason why this can’t be implemented.



The RBI has already rolled out the ‘Lead Bank’ scheme to introduce baking in unbanked areas. The RBI governor has already stated Financial Inclusion as one of the prime goals of RBI. The DCT scheme will be a mere extension of this goal. The lead bank scheme is already being implemented by various banks across the country. Apart from this the banks can introduce the concept of banking correspondent and mobile banking. The Banking Correspondent model is a very simple model where the bank employee goes from house to house and completes transactions. The person will just need to sign in and receive the required amount. In the same way money can be deposited in their accounts and all this will be credited to their account represented by their UID number. The DCT system will give banks a new impetus to aggressively take forward the cause of rural banking since it will give them a chance to increase their own business. Apart from this mobile banking is another way in which banking can be done with the poor. Mobile banking has been successfully implemented in countries like Nigeria and there is no reason why this can’t be implemented in India. A third way in which this can be achieved is by linking the DCT model with existing infrastructure like the CSC (Common Service Centres), E-kiosks etc. These institutions can serve as extension of the bank financial services acting in lieu of actual physical presence of banks. All this will require stronger grassroot participation which can be brought about by greater integration of the gram Panchayats and Block level committees. As it is seen generally in rural areas the role of women in governance is crucial. The government can also appoint ‘women committees’ in each village which will work in tandem with the Panchayats to overlook the whole system. They can act as the civil society watchdog of the system. In the urban areas the Banks already have efficient machinery. Institutional delivery will not be a major issue among the urban poor.



A second major doubt opponents of the system have is that the money reaching the poor will not be properly utilized. This is an extreme assumption since repeated sociological surveys have shown that the idea of finance is strong among the poorer population as well. Yet a proper mechanism can be in place to check the utilisation of the funds. Once again the women committees in rural areas can play a crucial role in ensuring the proper utilisation of funds in each household. For the urban areas implementation officials can be appointed who can ensure efficient delivery of the system in their notified areas. Since the money is directly transferred to the poor there will no instance of corruption in delivery level. Women in the rural areas have known to come forward against social evils like illicit liquor drinking time and again. As such there is little doubt about their capability to ensure that the funds received are utilized in a proper manner. Awareness activities in this regard must be carried out through the medium of media and other innovative forms like street plays etc.



The third major challenge is the identification of the poor. The recent debate between the Rangarajan Committee and the NAC puts this debate wide open. The definition of the poor is an important point in this regard. The government must carefully evaluate and ensure that not only the targeted but the needy are not excluded. While Universal targeting maybe a large task for the Government yet the Government must make a determined effort to include the Saxena Committee recommendations and Tendulkar Committee findings while defining the poor. The Saxena group made the following proposals: 1) any census of the poor should be preceded by identifying people who deserve to be excluded automatically. Examples are families that own cars, mechanized farm equipment or large farming plots; 2) identifying communities that should be included automatically, like Musahars, the homeless and primitive tribal groups; 3) ranking all other families on a scale of one to ten on various parameters. Points would be given for being a landless agricultural labourer, a member of a backward caste, a Muslim or a casual worker. In the present context the Saxena Committee method of ranking while defining the poor can indeed serve as a guide while identifying the poor. The BPL cards which have so long been a tool of corruption in the PDS must be done away with and the new system must be implemented in its place.



Another major charge that is leveled against DCT will be that it will give rise to inflation since there will be an increase in liquidity. While the relation between inflation and direct cash transfer can’t be denied yet the debate should be looked in the larger context. Inflation will not merely be caused by DCT inflation itself is a complex concept. To combat this, the government must take proper measures, including reforming the delivery mechanism of the supply side. Generally in India inflation stems from the faults of supply side rather than international crude oil prices of genuine market pressures. Thus if proper measures are taken then the government will be able to offset any and all effects of inflation caused by DCT.



The whole system of DCT however must not absolve the government of its responsibilities towards the social sector. In this regard the private sector can be encouraged to ensure development of the nation. For example the private sector generally refuses to implement social sector schemes like building hospital schools etc for fear of little or no returns. This stems from the fact that the poor people are financially discredited. The introduction of DTC poises to change all that, the DCT will ensure assured returns which will act as a motivating factor for the private sector. For example the students will be given study coupons which will take care of their fees and expenses. This will ensure that on the availability side the schools will compete among themselves to ensure better facilities to the students. The private sector too will join in since there will be assured returns. This model will undoubtedly be replicated in other social institutions like hospitals etc. Instead of mulling over a mandatory 2% CSR tax on the private sector through innovative schemes like DTC the government must make the social sector investment friendly and attractive. In this manner if DCT is implemented properly will give impetus to the social sector. Apart from this DCT have other advantages. For example the schools can be integrated with the UID database to ensure attendance of the students. The student coupons issued will be based on their attendance in schools. Thus it will also ensure that the problems like absenteeism of students can be effectively curbed. Thus DCT if properly implemented will give a range of advantages which will work towards strengthening the social sector. In the end DCT poises to give the poor “choices” in terms of what they want and this will be a true landmark in achieving the lofty goal of balanced development in the 21st century.

WHAT ANNA HAZARE SPELLS FOR DEMOCRACY

On 5th April 2011 something unprecedented happened as a 73 old man clad in khaki white and Nehru cap sat down at Jantar Mantar in New Delhi. He had a simple demand, earliest implementation of the LokPal bill and implementation of certain modalities in this regard. India watched as the movement grew from strength to strength. Naysayers and pessimists shaked their heads in disbelief as they quoted this movement as fruitless .However in the end the movement had its way. Now as the dust begins to settle a number of questions are being asked some questioning Anna Hazare’s motive itself.




However in arguing about these movements we have seen two opinions divided and rooted on the basis of two extremities. While one group was pro Anna and in a sense anti Government another group was anti Anna movement and used the personality of Anna Hazare to undermine the choices the people have made. However what was needed was a dispassionate and pragmatic view one which was far removed from the two extremities. And in taking up stand for the two extremities the celebrated authors and intellectuals missed out those points which were to be actual points of discussion.




The first point that needs to be discussed is why the LokPal bill. Many fear that this would become a superimposing agency one that will undermine the democratic structure. In the past 63 years of our independence India has witnessed massive levels of corruption .And the misdeeds of Emergency only reassured the need for a independent agency that would have even the PM under its preview. In recent times the functioning of the Gujarat SIT riots investigation, the Karnataka mining scheme, the 1000 crore scam in Assam, the spectrum band scandal have only reaffirmed the need for a strong LokPal. The idea of a LokPal stems from the Scandinavian concept of Ombudsman which was first institutionalised in Sweden in 1809.




Traditionally the ombudsman is appointed based on unanimity among all political parties supporting the proposal. The incumbent is an independent functionary and reports to the legislature. The Ombudsman can act both on the basis of complaints made by citizens, or suo moto. She/he can look into allegations of corruption as well as mal-administration. The punishments announced by the Ombudsmen vary from country to country. In some countries the Ombudsmen has the power to prosecute while in other it can order prosecution. The strength of the ombudsman lies in the publicity attached to the office, and the negative view that attaches itself to all that the office scrutinizes. In Sweden and Finland, ombudsmen can also supervise the courts. In other countries, their authority is only over the non-judicial public servants. In almost all the cases they deal with complaints relating to both corruption and mal-administration. Thus even in the countries itself, the institution of Ombusdmen has been moulded according to the needs of their own constitution. The same can be done for India constituting Ombudsmen which align with our own Constitutional structure while not becoming a super imposing structure.




The second point that is to be discussed whether the present structure of governance is enough to check corruption. The basic idea for this thought stems from the fact that if we strengthen the four estates of democracy then we will have a vibrant structure that discourages corruption. The answer to this utopian thought is a no in the present context. First of all the system of departmental enquiries by administrative officials against one another has rarely yielded results. Very often the officers have a departmental fraternity which makes it impossible for them to be prosecuted. In so many states so many IAS/IPS officers have pending cases against them and yet they continue to thrive because of departmental fraternity. On the legislative side the accountability of politicians in today’s context has become a farce. The politicians continue unabated corruption and when charged speak of peoples response. And very often that people’s response is in the form of a 5 year fair called election which they win again on the basis of false hopes promises coercion and money power.




The institution of Judiciary has proved to be the most credible till now in protecting individual rights. Yet the inherent problems in the judiciary right from the procedural complexities to the lack of awareness, act as denial of justice in the end. The recent charges of corruption against the High Court judges, the case of ‘uncle judges’ in Allahabad High Court which earned the rebuke of Supreme Court, have tarnished the judiciary image. The other existing devices of checking corruption have been less than successful. The Central Vigilance Commission is designed to inquire into allegations of corruption by administrative officials only. The role of CBI if anything can be best summed up by the repeated number of rebuke it has won from the Supreme Court. Hence there is a need for an agency like LokPal which can act for the wishes of the people and can only take the movement of strengthening democracy forward.




The third point that has been discussed by some sections is the timing of the movement. According to them the Anna Hazare movement was specifically timed after the world cup to attract the media attention. What they fail to understand is that every movement follows a strategy. Our Indian national freedom too followed a strategy many a times convenience of the people was out foremost while deciding the timing of a movement. Gandhiji knew when to start a movement and when to end it. Strategy is always the hallmark of a successful campaign. If the Anna Hazare campaign followed a particular strategy it was not merely to raise media bytes it was the choice to be made heard by the maximum number of people. If the idea is to garner public support for the right cause then timing is of utmost importance else the cause gets lost. And Anna Hazare is not a leader he is merely espousing what this country has been expressing for sometime now, apathy and anger. Otherwise nothing else could explain why the political leaders were hounded away from the meetings or professionals, doctors, engineers all took part in this movement.




The detractors of Anna Hazare have also questioned his motives. They have called him politically motivated and standing up for a meaningless cause. They have accused him of playing to a coterie which wants their own place in the seats of power. The NGO’s, who want to rise as partners in governance of this country. Yet all these fears are unfounded for the simple fact that people are getting aware. The detractors fail to realize that India is waking up. The people are becoming aware if there is any problem with the institution of LokPal in the future then we can be pretty sure that another Anna Hazare will rise to voice against those misdeeds that undermine the office of LokPal.




On the other side of the fence very few media organization has applauded the role of the government in this regard. True that the LokPal bill has been lying in apathy for many years however there were many constraints in implementing this bill. The pushing and pulling of the Bill in the Parliament killed the Bill every time. Yet once Anna Hazare raised the issue the government was quick to take action. Now many question the need for 5 days in reaching to a decision. However we must understand that it makes no sense if we agree to something which cannot be worked out later. In the present context the government had to carefully evaluate all options before making a move. And such decisions take time. The media which always wants 24*7 analysis or rather over-analysis of every issue ranted about 5 days, what they failed to comprehend that in those 5 days much of the time was spent in actual discussion of the proposed demands and how it spelt out in the future. In the end in accepting all the demands of Anna Hazare the government not only showed political maturity but a sense of understanding the prevalent public mood. That after 5 days they accepted all demands also augers well for the future course since every demand must have been discusses and assessed before being agreed upon. That increases the chance for a smooth passage in the monsoon session. Anna Hazare gave government that much needed push to see the bill making some actual progress. It was a victory for all the people and the government alike.




Yet in the end we must understand that democracy is a evolving process which challenges us everyday. Its meanings and connotations change every few years. As we further align ourselves with the global world we will experience other major changes in our democratic framework as well. While we must be vigilant as to how the LokPal operates history has taught us that we must also be ready for further changes in the future. A day will surely come when in India too we will demand for recalling of an elected candidate midway if he does not perform. Maybe that’s the reason why our Constitution is ‘rigid as well as flexible’ .Our forefathers while framing the constitution realized that the Constitution is very much like the population of the young nation. It grows and evolves, similar is the state of our Indian democracy –growing and evolving-and the institution of LokPal is merely a part of the evolving process.